Refined Analytics

WHY MOST ANALYTICS IN HOCKEY ARE USELESS 2

Most analytics in hockey are useless, maybe it works for the 3rd and 4th lines but even then it doesn't give the full picture. The first and second lines are the ones that don't get credit for what they actually do creatively on the ice. I have video proof of why it can show your first line is terrible when it comes to analytics. Additionally analytics pretty much completely ignores faceoffs, actual possession of the puck in the offensive zone, scoring chances, giveaways, power plays and short handed. They are only focused on 5 on 5 but the way it's done through Corsi and Fenwick tells you absolutely nothing.  And here's why.

Crel% is completely useless because it is based on Corsi. Corsi is 100% based on shots towards the goal, whether blocked, shots on goal or shots that missed the net. As long as they are directed towards the goal they get rewarded for it. Offensive lines usually play against the top lines of the other team so you're going to get time in your own zone and pressure from other top lines in the NHL is going to happen. The difference is top creative lines do not just shoot pucks at the goal, they try to keep possession and set up for a good scoring chance. In this first post this video will show you why it doesn't give you anywhere close to the whole story. I will be using the Winnipeg Jets as an example and it will be videos from their games. This video is what Andrew Copp does with Detroit and what Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi does as a line. And one other thing is you can't use analytics because sometimes the lines are split up, sometimes a player doesn't get on the ice right away, so it skews the results. You can also be on the ice with different defensemen, maybe your 5th or 6th defensemen. So just that alone makes these stats useless. To sit there and read these numbers after a game is ridiculous.

 Here is how I broke it down with my own stats. I don't differentiate between 5 on 5, power plays, short handed or 4 on 4 etc. A chance is a chance. I break it down by zone time even strength if they maintain control for at least 15 seconds without losing control, so puck battles where you gain control or lose control are recorded as giveaways or forced giveaways. I do have a different category for power play scoring chances, short handed scoring chances and how many times a team clears the puck down the ice while short handed.  My stats are below.

First up is scoring chances (SC) in all situations and broke down with short handed scoring chances and power play scoring chances. 

Second up is Offensice Zone Possession or OZP even strength. How I set it up was if the puck was in the zone for over 15 seconds and the offensive team had possession of it over that time, I would count it until a whistle or it got cleared out of the zone after 15 seconds of continuous control. If the defensive team had the puck during the 15 seconds I would start over again until the offensive team got a hold of it, recording if it was a giveaway or forced giveaway or if it was a 50/50 battle which was not recorded. It was a lot easier than I thought, if it was over 15 seconds and there was a 50/50 battle on the wall or they got possession back from the defensive team or vice versa for short periods of time, the clock kept going. I paired this with Defensive Zone or (DZ) so DZ would be how long lines were in their own zone using the same rule over 15 seconds. Remember, these are times that they spent in the offensive zone and defensive zone over 15 seconds of control from the offensive team. Number Offensive Zone Possessions or (NOZP) and Defensive Zone or (DZ) and Number Defensive Zone Trapped or (NDZT). So these are the numbers for the number of times this occurred during the game. A rush up the ice goal would be put in the scoring chance column.  I decided to just give the number of times it happened in a game for the players for and a against and different categories of 15 seconds, 20 seconds, 25 seconds, 30 seconds, 40 seconds 50 seconds and 1 minute higher or 1MH. 

Next was Giveaways (GA), and this was straight giveaways. The player must have complete control and trying to make a pass and it was deflected and the other team took possession or straight giveaways to the other team. I didn't count dump ins or flipping it out to center ice to relieve pressure.

Forced Giveaways (FGA), plays that a player checked you and you tried to make a pass and you gave it up. I didn't count 50/50 battles, this was only if you had 100% clear possession and you were forced to make a pass and lost the puck, I only really found one, the rest were battles on the boards, it really had to be blatant. I didn't count ones that were passes from your own end to center or the far blueline that were knocked down because you were wanting a change but the puck still got into the offensive zone.

Total Ice (TI) so this was your total amount of time on the ice during the whole game.

Short Handed Clears (SHC) how many times the team were able to clear the puck out of the zone short handed for each penalty against. Penalties (P). I put this on the same line, so the first penalty, and penalty followed by the number of clears for each short handed situation.

Power Play Scoring Chances (PPSC) the number of actual scoring chances and I included shots from the point with traffic in front of the goalie or cross ice one timers from distance, that normally wouldn't be considered a scoring chance 5 on 5.

Short Handed Scoring Chances (SHSC) the number of chances you had short handed.

Zone Faceoffs (ZFO) For faceoffs won or lost I only used the ones in the zones, I excluded the ones between the bluelines. I gave a win if you drew the puck back even if you didn't get possession. These are total of your zone faceoffs.

Faceoffs Wins Offensive Zone (FOWOZ) these are the faceoffs you won in the offensive zone like I said before, as long as you won it back, if it was a tie whoever got possession got the win.

Faceoffs Wins Defensive Zone (FOWDZ)  faceoffs won in the defensive zone.

Faceoffs Lost Offensive Zone (FOLOZ) faceoffs lost in the offensive zone.

Faceoffs Lost Defensive Zone (FOLDZ) faceoffs lost in the defensive zone.

And that's it. Like I said, the  3rd and 4th lines won't be as good using these statistics but it is a good way to find out how good your top lines are.

So there  you have it, how the real numbers should be calculated in the NHL. You'd think the Jets were outplayed from beginning to end if you read about it and didn't actually watch the game. I will try this again with some of other teams and see what information it brings. Again, even with these stats you can't possibly figure out the real story unless you watch the game. Below are my stats for the game.

These are the best stats to be as close to figuring out how good your team is in a particular game if you didn't watch it. But someone else can do the recording of it. I probably made some mistakes and I'm human, and it's humans recording corsi and fenwick, so it's not even close to giving you the whole picutre as you can see by my stats and the ones I looked up at hockey-Reference.com. You might think Dallas was robbed, they weren't. They were dominated. Nothing is better than watching the game yourself though.  Addendum, on my next stats SHSCA will be the total for the game.