WHY MOST ANALYTICS IN HOCKEY ARE USELESS

Most analytics in hockey are useless, maybe it works for the 3rd and 4th lines but even then it doesn't give the full picture. The first and second lines are the ones that don't get credit for what they actually do creatively on the ice. I have video proof of why it can show your first line is terrible when it comes to analytics. Additionally analytics pretty much completely ignores faceoffs, actual possession of the puck in the offensive zone, scoring chances, giveaways, power plays and short handed. They are only focused on 5 on 5 but the way it's done through Corsi and Fenwick tells you absolutely nothing.  And here's why.

Crel% is completely useless because it is based on Corsi. Corsi is 100% based on shots towards the goal, whether blocked, shots on goal or shots that missed the net. As long as they are directed towards the goal they get rewarded for it. Offensive lines usually play against the top lines of the other team so you're going to get time in your own zone and pressure from other top lines in the NHL is going to happen. The difference is top creative lines do not just shoot pucks at the goal, they try to keep possession and set up for a good scoring chance. In this first post this video will show you why it doesn't give you anywhere close to the whole story. I will be using the Winnipeg Jets as an example and it will be videos from their games. This video is what Andrew Copp does with Detroit and what Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi does as a line. And one other thing is you can't use analytics because sometimes the lines are split up, sometimes a player doesn't get on the ice right away, so it skews the results. You can also be on the ice with different defensemen, maybe your 5th or 6th defensemen. So just that alone makes these stats useless. To sit there and read these numbers after a game is ridiculous. 

Ok so in the video below, we will watch Scheifele, Connor and Vilardi spend 35 seconds in the zone, they actually spent almost a minute in the zone but for this purpose the last 35 seconds are good enough. They get one shot towards the goal and the defenesman is the one who loses the puck and they have to play defense.  In the last 11 seconds of the video is Andrew Copp from the Detroit Red Wings and his 2 entries into the Jets defensive zone.

So, would you rather have what Copp did or what the Scheifele line did? Based on those 3 instances, the Scheifele line would get 33 Corsi number which is poor because you want to be at least 50 and up to have a good Corsi, and Copp and his line would get 66 Corsi for 2 shots towards the goal. Isn't that ridiculous? 35 seconds of possession in the offensive zone compared to 2 shots towards the goal and Copp gets double the corsi number. Now you may think, oh well, you cherry picked these stats. Not really, it happens a lot in many games and it gives the analytic crowd and the media to jump on your best players. It took about 10 seconds of watching the Jets number one line get into the offensive zone and Copp did this kind of thing multiple times in Winnipeg and the analytics community raved about his analytics but to me it shows nothing of value and he's either the most uncreative guy in hockey or he knows how to work analytics to get his 5 million dollar a year contract. I mean good for him if he can get that out of a team, but he's a 15 a year goal scorer at best and his best years are behind him. But the analytic world wants to figure out the future but that isn't it. There are countless examples of this kind of thing and if hockey teams are using this as a way to measure a hockey players worth, top line players are getting the short end of the stick. With video readily available, you never need Corsi or Fenwick. You need to find your team's talents and do what Winnipeg is doing in the 2024-2025 season. Play to their strengths and have a fantastic power play and short handed team.

I have come up with all the numbers you need for a game to show how good your team is playing and the perfect example is the latest Dallas Stars vs. Winnipeg Jets game. The team corsi for that game was hilarious, because the Jets dominated that game except for the 3rd period and even then it was only because the Jets were up 4-0 starting the third. So here's the corsi for the two teams. Winnipeg had a 38.8 corsi and Dallas had a 61.3 corsi. So if you didn't watch the game and just read the numbers you'd think, oh wow Winnipeg lucked out but how wrong you'd be.

My stats had 29 scoring chances for Winnipeg to 20 for Dallas. Now I don't know how they determine what is a scoring chance, but wrist shots from the blueline aren't really a chance, anything above the hashmarks isn't a chance, sure goals are scored like that but those should be stopped if not screened or deflected.  If a player is screening the goalie or deflects it, then that would be a scoring chance, but throwing the puck at the net is fine for the 3rd and 4th lines but for the top lines you'd like to see some good plays.  So how do you get a good idea about your team's game? I would even break it down by periods to get the best idea of how your team is doing. Because the Jets were up 4-0 going into the third. Most of Dallas's chances were in the last 5 minutes of the game and a power play to boot. 

Here is how I broke it down with my own stats. I don't differentiate between 5 on 5, power plays, short handed or 4 on 4 etc. A chance is a chance. I break it down by zone time even strength, short handed and power plays.  My stats are below.

First up is scoring chances (SC) in all situations, if you want to see it broke up look for it online.

The Jets had 29 scoring chances and 4 of those were goals. Dallas had 20 scoring chances and one was a goal with just over a minute left. I am only using these stats from Winnipeg's perspective.  I know the players and it's easier for me.

Second up is Offensice Zone Possession or OZP even strength. How I set it up was if the puck was in the zone for over 10 seconds and the team had possession of it over that time, I would count it until a whistle or it got cleared out of the zone. If the defensive team had the puck during the 10 seconds I would start over again until the offensive team got a hold of it. It was a lot easier than I thought, if it was over 10 seconds and there was a 50/50 battle on the wall or they got possession back from the defensive team or vice versa for short periods of time, the clock kept going. I paired this with Defensive Zone or (DZ) and like I said it was from the Jets point of view so DZ would be how long lines were in their own zone using the same rule over 10 seconds. So Vilardi had 1:43 of total zone time, Scheifele had 2:07 as did Connor, compared to in their own zone, Vilardi and Scheifele had 1:11 in their own zone and Connor 1:32.  Remember, these are times that they spent in the offensive zone and defensive zone over 10 seconds of control from the offensive team. Number Offensive Zone Possessions or (NOZP) and Defensive Zone or (DZ) and Number Defensive Zone Trapped or (NDZT). So these are the numbers for the number if times this occurred during the game. A rush up the ice goal would be put in the scoring chance column.

Next was Giveaways (GA), and this was straight giveaways. I left it to trying to make a pass and it was deflected and the other team took possession or straight giveaways to the other team. I didn't count dump ins or flipping it out to center ice to relieve pressure.

Forced Giveaways (FGA), plays that a player checked you and you tried to make a pass and you gave it up. I didn't count 50/50 battles, this was only if you had 100% clear possession and you were forced to make a pass and lost the puck, I only really found one, the rest were battles on the boards, it really had to be blatant. I didn't count ones that were passes from your own end to center or the far blueline that were knocked down because you were wanting a change but the puck still got into the offensive zone.

Total Ice (TI) so this was your total amount of time on the ice during the whole game.

Power Play Zone Time (PPZT) so this was the total amount of time you had the puck in the offensive zone during a power play. I didn't add up the total power play time or a shortened power play or if when they scored or not, just how much time you controlled the puck in the offensves zone and I didn't use the 10 second rule like 5 on 5.

Short Handed Zone Time (SHZT) the same as above except you're killing the penalty.

Short Handed Clears (SHC) I also checked off the number of times short handed that the Jets cleared it during a penalty kill, again I didn't do the ones for Dallas, just the Jets. if a player missed the net and the puck left the zone without actually clearing it I gave credit to the forward trying to block it or whoever was closest to where the puck was shot from.

Power Play Scoring Chances (PPSC) the number of actual scoring chances and I included shots from the point with traffice in front of the goalie.

Short Handed Scoring Chances Against (SHSCA) these are the number of short handed chances you gave up. This was the total in the game. I changed it to make it easier.

Short Handed Scoring Chances (SHSC) the number of chances you had short handed.

Faceoffs (FO) For faceoffs won or lost I only used the ones in the zones, I excluded the ones between the bluelines. I gave a win if you drew the puck back even if you didn't get possession. These are total of your zone faceoffs.

Faceoffs Wins Offensive Zone (FWOZ) these are the faceoffs you won in the offensive zone like I said before, as long as you won it back, if it was a tie whoever got possession got the win.

Faceoffs Wins Defensive Zone (FWDZ)  faceoffs won in the defensive zone.

Faceoffs Lost Offensive Zone (FLOZ) faceoffs lost in the offensive zone.

Faceoffs Lost Defensive Zone (FLDZ) faceoffs lost in the defensive zone.

And that's it. Like I said, the  3rd and 4th lines won't be as good using these statistics but it is a good way to find out how good your top lines are.

As you can see Scheifele, Vilardi and Connor spent double the time in the offensive end while at even strength generating 10 scoring chances while giving up about 4 scoring chances against, 4 while Scheifele and Connor were on the ice and 1 less with all three on together. The scoring chances against went against the whole line while the scoring chances for were each players scoring chances and that totaled 10. They doubled the zone possession and more than doubled the scoring chances.  These scoring chances also include the power play and short handed and that's how it should be. You shouldn't be penalized because you generate a lot of scoring chances on the PP or SH.

Remember how the Corsi was calculated?  This gives the real story of the game, and if I broke it down by period, you'd see that the Jets dominated for 2 periods and only after a 4-0 lead did they allow more chances in the third and most of the them were really late in the game.

So there  you have it, how the real numbers should be calculated in the NHL. You'd think the Jets were outplayed from beginning to end if you read about it and didn't actually watch the game. I will try this again with some of other teams and see what information it brings. Again, even with these stats you can't possibly figure out the real story unless you watch the game. Below are my stats for the game.

These are the best stats to be as close to figuring out how good your team is in a particular game if you didn't watch it. But someone else can do the recording of it. I probably made some mistakes and I'm human, and it's humans recording corsi and fenwick, so it's not even close to giving you the whole picutre as you can see by my stats and the ones I looked up at hockey-Reference.com. You might think Dallas was robbed, they weren't. They were dominated. Nothing is better than watching the game yourself though.  Addendum, on my next stats SHSCA will be the total for the game.